Dear Readers,
Lately, my feed has been full of articles discussing the decline in birth rates, which got me thinking about the choices women and families make—and, of course, my own. Every generation faces uncertainty—I’m sure raising children during world wars was no easy decision—but it feels like the world is becoming more confusing and, frankly, a bit more dangerous every day. At the risk of sounding like I’m fearmongering, I can’t help but acknowledge—based on my own experience—how overwhelming it is to consume news today. The media has made it possible to access news 24/7 – stories of pedophilia, wars, murders, disappearances. It’s not only overwhelming, but nearly impossible to process so much information. We’re also constantly reminded of environmental crises: plastic pollution, ocean degradation, climate change. Climate anxiety is real, especially as each year brings more fires, floods, droughts, and warnings. It’s hard to imagine raising a child when the future feels so uncertain.
Then there’s the reality that major corporations continue to ignore environmental consequences in favour of profit. Add to that the ecological footprint of having a child—and the significant financial demands that come with it. There’s an entire industry built around making parents feel inadequate if they don’t buy the newest educational toy or follow the latest trend in child-rearing. I've seen some of my friends literally switch rooms with their toddlers because the kids have more toys, books, shelves, and clothes than they do.
And let’s not forget politics. Government programs designed to boost birth rates often feel like a trap. These initiatives tend to favour the middle class and wealthier families, leaving out minorities and immigrants—ironically, groups where birth rates are often higher. But beyond that, even before a child is born, the system already fails many parents.
Take Hungary, for example: public hospitals are chronically understaffed and overwhelmed. While conceiving a child may be a miracle, giving birth in a public hospital can be deeply traumatic—simply because there isn’t enough funding or attention given to healthcare. The education system is also in decline. After decades of wages falling below livable standards, many passionate educators have left their jobs. Now gym teachers are subbing in for physics and other specialized subjects.
And all of this exists alongside global instability—wars, famine, widespread suffering in some regions. Economic pressures only add to the weight: inflation eroding salaries, housing prices that feel completely unattainable, and childcare costs that can rival or even surpass rent.
I’m not saying definitively that I don’t want children, and I’m not sure if I ever will. But I do sometimes catch myself looking, maybe a little enviously, at photos of wealthy celebrities and their children—wondering how much easier it must feel for them, knowing they won’t face the same economic hurdles as the rest of us.
I fully understand that having a child is ultimately an emotional decision—it’s rarely based solely on logic, finances, or politics. Still, I can’t help but wish that the world felt like a better place for every child born into it.
In this blog post from Sincerely Doubt That…, I’m exploring the global decline in birth rates—and the very real reasons so many people are choosing not to have children. I’ll be looking at which countries are seeing the sharpest declines, how governments are reacting, and why more and more people—especially those not born into financial security—are saying: maybe not.
The real reason behind the the decline
The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) released its State of the World Population 2025 report in June. The report highlighted that more and more individuals are unable to start families—not because they’re turning away from the idea of parenthood, but because of rising living costs, ongoing wars, and difficulties finding compatible partners.
An online survey of more than 10,000 people posed the question: “In your personal situation, what factors have led or are likely to lead you to have fewer children than you initially desired?” The choices were divided between categories such as health, economy, desires changed/ influenced, concerns over future and other factors. And those surveyed pointed to economic barriers—39 per cent reported that their choice is due to financial limitations. 19 per cent named housing limitations (e.g., lack of space, high house prices/rent costs); 12 per cent claimed lack of sufficient/ quality childcare options; and 21 per cent chose unemployment / job insecurity.
Far-right nationalist governments—such as those in Hungary and parts of the United States—often frame declining birth rates as a symptom of cultural decay, blaming individuals for turning their backs on family and parenthood. But this narrative is not only overly simplistic; it’s also deeply misleading. It ignores the fact that many people who want children face real barriers, including infertility, which affects millions globally. And beyond that, the decision not to have children is rarely about outright rejection—it’s often about circumstances. Do you remember when the late Pope Francis claimed that couples who choose pets over children are selfish? I’m aware of the saying don’t speak ill of the dead, but even at the time, I thought: it’s quite something for a man who took a vow of celibacy and parenthood-free life to scold others for their choices. It’s a perfect example of how out of touch some public voices are with the economic and emotional weight of this decision. If you're financially undervalued in the job market, don’t own a home, have minimal savings, and live paycheck to paycheck, then raising a child might feel not just daunting, but unfair to the child. In that context, choosing a pet isn't selfish—it’s responsible.
And yes, let’s be honest—there has been a cultural shift. Contraceptives are widely available, and women and couples now make career decisions with far more freedom than they did a few decades ago. The idea of getting married at 20, having three kids by 28, securing a mortgage, and staying home to raise children is no longer the default life path. (No judgement at all for those who choose that—honestly, respect—but I, for one, was deep in university papers and part-time jobs throughout my twenties.) Still, this cultural shift shouldn't be misread as a rejection of parenthood. That’s far too reductive.
There have been countless articles and studies in recent years about women who choose not to marry or have children—and are genuinely happy, even fulfilled, living without regrets. Why? Because the structure of our society still places a disproportionate amount of childcare and domestic responsibility on women. It’s not just about biology. Women are more often the ones taking parental leave, earning less, stepping back from their careers, and juggling the mental load of parenting—even after returning to work. And despite all the corporate lip service about flexible work environments, we all know that coworker “Karen” who probably won’t get that promotion because her toddler is sick every other week.
So can you really blame women for choosing their own path? For prioritizing their careers, passions, freedom—or simply their peace? Men are encouraged to choose a direction in life; women are still told, explicitly or implicitly, to find someone and follow. That script is finally changing—not just in progressive circles, but in real homes, workplaces, and lives. And with that change comes new choices, including the very valid decision not to become a parent.
Yet despite all these realities, far-right governments continue to ignore the bigger picture. They neglect healthcare, education, and economic inequality, while promoting “family values” as if the financial and social barriers to parenthood don’t exist. It’s not a rejection of family—it’s a response to a system that makes starting one increasingly difficult.
Countries most affected by the decline
The average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime is called the total fertility rate (TFR). Globally, the TFR is around 2.3 children per woman. While falling birth rates are a global phenomenon, the causes and consequences one might think would differ depending on cultural, political, and economic context. Surprisingly, this is not the case. To explore this more closely, I’ve chosen five countries that reflect a wide geographic and policy spectrum: South Korea, Hungary, Italy, Mexico, and the United States. Together, they span Asia, Europe, North America, and the Global South, offering a more layered view of how birth rates are shifting worldwide.
What’s striking is that despite different political systems, levels of development, and cultural expectations, all of these countries are grappling with the same reality: fewer people are having children, and efforts to reverse the trend—whether through cash incentives, tax breaks, or political appeals to “family values”—are seem to be failing.
South Korea: Cash, Careers, and the Cost of Choosing
South Korea now holds the title for the world’s lowest fertility rate—just 0.75 births per woman. And while I know this might be starting to sound repetitive (sky-high housing prices, work stress, gender inequality—you get it), it’s worth repeating precisely because these struggles show up everywhere.
In recent years, both the government and major corporations have gone full throttle with pronatalist* policies—offering everything from generous baby bonuses to publicly funded matchmaking events. The intention is clear: reverse demographic decline before it hits the economy—and the military. Fewer babies mean fewer workers, fewer consumers, and even fewer soldiers in a country where national security is a very real concern.
But here’s the thing: while these policies may provide short-term encouragement, I’m not entirely sure they solve the real issue in the long term. Using Hungary again as an example, the bonus scheme and other benefits for families had significantly increased housing prices. When people—especially women—delay or opt out of parenthood because of intense career pressures, traditional expectations, and a lack of support at home and work, the problem isn’t just financial. It’s structural. Cultural. Emotional. Therefore money is far from being the ultimate solution.
And the pressure falls hardest on women, who still carry most of the responsibility for raising children while being expected to maintain ambitious careers. It’s not that people are selfish or anti-family—it's that the cost of parenting (financially, mentally, emotionally) keeps going up, while support often remains performative or conditional.
Hungary: Nationalism in the Nursery
The language used to discuss fertility trends is often loaded. In an age of widespread disinformation, policymakers and the media should avoid alarmist framing—but in Hungary, that kind of rhetoric is more common than not. What initially pushed me to write about this topic were the headlines—even from independent outlets—filled with words like “shocking” and “dramatic.” Ironically, it’s not always government messaging that feels the most extreme—it’s the panic embedded in everyday reporting.
Hungary has become something of a poster child for far-right “pro-family” policies, with Prime Minister Viktor Orbán making increasing the birth rate a national mission. Hungary’s aggressive pronatalist policies include financial incentives like tax cuts for large families, housing and other loans for married couples who agree to have babies, and extended parental leave. These measures are part of a broader political agenda emphasising the preservation of traditional Hungarian culture and opposing immigration. In a 2018 speech, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán stated, “We must state that we do not want to be diverse and do not want to be mixed: we do not want our own color, traditions and national culture to be mixed with those of others.” This way of thinking ties fertility policies to a goal of keeping the population culturally and ethnically uniform, revealing a strong concern about changes in the country’s demographic makeup.
But his government’s incentives are targeted largely at middle-class, ethnically Hungarian families. Minority groups, including the Roma community, are often left out of this support. The message is clear: it’s not about all families—it’s about a specific vision of who is “worthy” of reproducing. Meanwhile, the healthcare and education systems remain underfunded, and women continue to bear the brunt of unpaid labor and career sacrifices. Let's not judge those who choose not to have children in the current situation.
Italy: A Demographic Crisis Amid Economic and Social Challenges
Italy’s declining birth rate has reached the level where it is considered a national emergency. Despite repeated promises from Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and her predecessors to tackle the issue, the downward trend continues unabated. In 2024, only 370,000 babies were born—the lowest number since the country’s unification in 1861. A recent UNFPA report reveals that 29% of Italians surveyed attribute having fewer children to financial struggles, while 30% point to unemployment or job insecurity, underscoring how economic uncertainty weighs heavily on family planning.
Last year, about 191,000 Italians relocated abroad, marking the highest emigration level recorded this century and a sharp increase of over 20% from the year before. This spike could have influenced official figures, so a new law was introduced last year that fines Italians living overseas if they fail to formally register as expatriates in their new country of residence.
Mexico: Changing Realities, New Choices
Latin America has seen a significant transformation in fertility patterns over recent decades. While the region once faced some of the highest rates of adolescent pregnancy worldwide, expanding access to contraception and reproductive health programs has empowered women to better control the timing and number of their children. Countries like Argentina, Uruguay, and Chile have seen dramatic declines in teen pregnancies thanks to free or low-cost contraceptive options, including long-lasting implants. This shift reflects broader social changes as women gain more autonomy and access to healthcare.
Mexico fits into this regional trend, with its fertility rate dropping from around 7 children per woman in the 1960s to approximately 1.8 today. According to the UNFPA report, 35% of surveyed Mexicans cited financial constraints as a key reason for having fewer children, while 21% pointed to unemployment or job insecurity..
One anonymous young Mexican woman’s testimony from the report captures this reality: “I want children, but it's becoming more difficult as time passes by. It is impossible to buy or have affordable rent in my city. I also would not like to give birth to a child in war times and worsened planetary conditions if that means the baby would suffer because of it.”
Interestingly, demographers initially predicted that pandemic lockdowns might lead to a rise in unplanned pregnancies due to reduced access to contraceptives and increased time spent at home. However, fertility rates in Mexico continued to decline during this period. To me, this signals progress—women and adolescents taking ownership of their reproductive choices is an empowering shift, not a setback.
United States: A Place I Would Never Choose to Raise a Child
The U.S. is honestly a country where I would never want to live—or bring a child into. (Don’t worry, Trump, I’m not planning to immigrate.) As a European, I can’t imagine what it’s like to live in a country where carrying firearms is a constitutional right.
Then there’s the brutal cost of healthcare. Giving birth in the U.S. can lead to crippling hospital bills if you don’t have top-tier insurance. And when it comes to parental leave, there’s no national law mandating paid time off—whether you get it depends entirely on your employer’s policies, if they offer it at all.
One of Donald Trump’s recent proposals is to offer a $5,000 “baby bonus” for new mothers. This fits into a broader “pronatalist” movement in the U.S., which uses falling birthrates to push so-called “traditional” family values and encourage more births—especially among white women.
But experts agree that handing out cash won’t fix the bigger issues. Between unaffordable healthcare, soaring housing costs, inaccessible childcare, and the absence of guaranteed parental leave, many Americans simply can’t afford to start families—and no bonus check will change that.
Adding to all this, in 2022 the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, ending the constitutional right to abortion in the United States. Since then, more than a dozen states—mainly in the South and Midwest—have enacted total abortion bans. While these were framed as ideological or religious victories, they could also be viewed as part of the broader “fertility rate war”—perhaps the most aggressive and coercive approach possible. As a result, women in these states are now forced to carry unwanted and unsafe pregnancies to term. Even if birth rates have increased slightly, so has infant mortality—and that fact alone is infuriating. Every woman has the right to full and complete control over her own body and reproductive choices. Or, as Jennifer Aniston once put it on Friends: “No uterus, no opinion.” That’s the principle to live by.
Call me crazy, but I actually find it reassuring that people’s decisions about having children are also shaped by real, tangible economic and political barriers: financial limits, sky-high housing prices and lack of space, poor childcare options, job insecurity, political instability, climate fears, and global crises like wars and pandemics. Being a politician may once have been a noble profession, but these days it feels like the elected clowns running the show aren’t here to serve us. They make decisions that leave people struggling with their health, education, and finances and yet, these same politicians—like the far-right in Hungary or Trump in the U.S.—blatantly blame childless people for “rejecting” parenthood. My response? Look around. You’re part of the problem, because you created many of these barriers for families in the first place.
When a child does come into the world, they deserve good healthcare, quality education, and a safe, stable home to grow up in—physically and emotionally. Coming from a low-income family, I know firsthand how difficult it is for parents to provide all that.
Structural changes are what’s truly needed—not the pretense that pronatalist policies alone can fix declining birth rates.
Yours Sincerely,
BB
* Pronatalist: Policies or practices that encourage a higher birth rate (Population Reference Bureau, 2025). “Pronatalist” can also be used to refer to advocates of policies or practices that promote an increased birth rate. Some use this term to specifically refer to “cultural and institutional forces that compel reproduction”. I’m using it critically in this piece.
Sources
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United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA). State of World Population 2024: Interwoven Lives, Threads of Hope. https://www.unfpa.org/sites/default/files/pub-pdf/swp2024-english-240327-web.pdf
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